The recently published McKinsey Global Institute report says that 107 million workers, or 1 in 16, will need to find a different occupation by 2030. This is 12 per cent more across countries than estimated before the pandemic, and as much as 25 per cent more in advanced economies.

The report - The future of work after COVID‑19 - is the first of three MGI reports that examine aspects of the post-pandemic economy—the future of work, consumer behaviour, and the potential for a broad recovery led by enhanced productivity and innovation.

Given the concentration of job growth in high-wage occupations and declines in low-wage occupations, the scale and nature of workforce transitions required in the years ahead will be challenging, according to the research. Workers needing to make those transitions may require more significant training and acquisition of new skills to secure jobs in growing occupations.

The research suggests that between 60 and 75 per cent of the workers needing to change occupations in advanced economies currently hold jobs in the lowest wages sectors. Before the pandemic, the research had found that those workers could have expected to transition to a new occupation in the same wage group, while workers holding middle-wage jobs would need to learn skills to enable them to move up for a new position.

In the post-COVID‑19 scenario, the research finds not only that a larger share of workers will likely need to transition out of the bottom wage sectors but also that a majority of them will need new, more advanced skills to move to occupations that are better. Overall, it was found that just over half of workers in the lowest wage sectors who need to switch occupations will need move into occupations in higher-wage sectors.

The skill mix required of the workforce going forward—and particularly among those changing occupations—differs from today. The predominant skills required by jobs in each wage quintile by share of time spent working.